The clearance rate data for 20th June 2026 should concern every vendor thinking of going to auction.
Saturday’s numbers tell three very different stories depending on whom you listen to.
On Saturday, the REIV reported a preliminary clearance rate of 65% & REA Group reported 46% across 1,375 auctions.
Fast-forward to Tuesday, and Louis Christopher and his team at SQM Research came in at 37%.
That’s not a rounding difference. That’s a large gap between the preliminary figure and what’s actually happening in the market.
The REIV only counts results submitted directly by agents. Properties passed in, withdrawn, or quietly pulled from auction often don’t make the cut. When you only count the sales, the rate looks flattering.
SQM Research releases its auction data on a Tuesday, and that captures the full picture, every scheduled auction, including those that never made it to the room. 37% is the honest number!
What does that mean for vendors?
A reading below 50% indicates a buyer’s market. At 37%, buyers know the pass-in rate, have seen campaigns stall, and are in no rush. Conditional offers, longer settlement periods, and post-auction negotiations well below the reserve are becoming the norm.
Melbourne dwelling values fell 0.8% in May and 2.3% over the quarter. That’s not catastrophic, but combined with a genuine clearance rate near a third of all auctions, the environment is punishing vendors who are not priced where buyers see value!
I predict the rest of 2026 won’t be easy for vendors. The Federal budget changes around negative gearing, capital gains tax and more recently, the removal of the ability to buy residential property in your self-managed super fund.
September-October will be the real test for the Melbourne market.
The real estate selling agents quoting 65% aren’t lying; they’re using what they know and a methodology that suits a good news story!
37% is more confronting. But it’s the number that should inform how you set your advertised and reserve price, structure your campaign, and manage expectations.
I work with buyers and sellers every week, and I can tell you that I’m telling a lot of vendors not to sell unless they are highly motivated or upsizing.
I’m Andrew Date, the founder of Industry Insider Property, based in Toorak.
Industry Insider Property
Level 3, 489 Toorak Road, Toorak 3142
