There has been plenty of talk about Toorak’s property market falling off a cliff. The latest Domain data certainly makes for a big headline. Toorak’s median house price peaked at around $5.8 million in March 2024. By the June quarter of 2026, it had fallen to $3.665 million.
That’s a fall of more than $2 million, or 36.8 per cent from the peak. Over the past 12 months alone, the median has reportedly fallen 26.7 per cent.
But here’s the problem.
A falling median doesn’t mean every house in Toorak has lost 36.8 per cent of its value.
Having worked in Melbourne property for 18 years, this is exactly why I don’t like relying on suburb medians when advising buyers, especially in Toorak.
Toorak Isn’t One Property Market
You can’t treat Toorak like a normal suburb; land size, heritage vs non-heritage, architecture, build quality & specific streets make all the difference. There can be an enormous difference between a compromised property on a busy road and an A-grade home in one of Toorak’s best streets.
And at this end of the market, the difference between an A-grade and B-grade location can be millions of dollars.
That is why the median can move dramatically when transaction volumes fall. If fewer $10 million, $15 million and $20 million homes sell during a quarter, the median can fall significantly without every property in Toorak losing the same percentage of its value.
What I’m Actually Seeing in Toorak.
The prestige market has definitely changed. Some vendors are 10-20% higher than what the market is prepared to pay. Is this a vendor problem or a real estate agent problem? I would argue it’s actually both. Some agents feel the need to offer a higher price and be more optimistic about value.
Buyers have become far more selective, taking time to complete due diligence, negotiate, and sign contracts only when they see ur.e value.
After three interest rate increases this year, changes around property taxation, and continued economic uncertainty, buyers aren’t rushing into deals anymore.
Any sellers coming online in this environment are highly motivated. We are seeing 50% more properties off-market than usual because many sellers only want to sell off-market.
Plenty of money is still looking for quality Melbourne property. What we’re missing is confidence.
The best properties can still attract serious competition; the most important element is price. On the flip side, compromised properties are getting exposed, passing in, not selling, and seeing large price reductions.
Where Buyers Have More Power!
The biggest change I’m seeing is negotiation. During stronger markets, vendors could dictate terms and have multiple buyers interested. Currently, buyers have more room to negotiate.
We’re seeing properties take longer to sell. We’re seeing campaigns pass in at auction and convert to a private sale. We’re seeing vendors test prices off-market before committing to public campaigns.
And we’re seeing deals happen where both sides eventually meet somewhere in the middle.
For buyers with cash or finance approved, this creates opportunities. But it certainly doesn’t mean every property is a bargain.
Off-Market Is Becoming More Important
One of the biggest shifts in this market is happening away from the portals. Prestige owners often don’t need to sell. If they don’t like the market’s response to the price, they can withdraw the property.
That makes off-market transactions particularly important. We’ve been seeing this across Toorak, Brighton, Hawthorn, Armadale & South Yarra.
Some owners want to test a price quietly. Others don’t want a public campaign sitting online for months and wasting money.
For buyers, that means relying solely on realestate.com.au and Domain, and you’re missing out on so many off-market opportunities. It also means you’re not informed about what properties are actually trading for.
A-Grade Property Still Matters
This is the part I would focus on. When markets soften, quality matters more, not less.
Buyers have choices; they can reject poor floor plans.
They will reject compromised positions and inferior orientation.
That’s why I’d rather buy an A-grade property at a fair price than buy a compromised property simply because it’s 20 per cent cheaper.
The actual property is the opportunity.
A-grade land in Melbourne’s best streets remains finite.
You can’t manufacture another premium Armadale or Toorak street. You can’t move a house away from a main road. You can’t change the land’s orientation.
You can’t turn a B-grade position into an A-grade one with a renovation.
Is Now a Good Time to Buy?
For the right buyer, this is one of the more interesting prestige markets we’ve seen for some time.
Not because it’s cheap. It’s because buyers currently have something they haven’t always had. Time and negotiation power. Buyers still need discipline, but there are opportunities to negotiate terms beyond price, including longer settlement periods.
Don’t buy something simply because it looks cheaper than it did two years ago. Focus on the right street, a good land component, the right orientation and a functional floor plan.
For buyers looking for quality property in Toorak, Armadale, South Yarra, Malvern and Melbourne’s other prestige markets. The best buying opportunities don’t always appear when everyone feels confident.
Sometimes they appear when everyone else is waiting.
I’m Andrew Date, the founder and Senior Advisor at Industry Insider Property, Toorak. Industry Insider Property acts exclusively for buyers, advisors and sellers in Melbourne’s prestige and luxury residential market.
Industry Insider Property
Level 3, 489 Toorak Road, Toorak 3142
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